引导政策对农户持续采纳清洁取暖的仿真研究——基于汾渭平原农户房屋异质性分析

A Simulation Study on Guiding Policies to Farmers' Sustainable Adoption of Clean Heating: Based on the Heterogeneity Analysis of Rural Households' Houses in the Fenwei Plain

  • 摘要: 清洁取暖在汾渭平原农村地区实施后出现难以持续的问题。本文通过引导政策对不同房屋类别农户影响的结构方程研究和作用效果仿真,探寻分类施策的对策建议。研究结果表明:1)意愿与行为的统一是清洁取暖持续采纳的重要前提;2)农宅保温性能对引导政策影响农户意愿和行为具有重要的调节作用;3)农宅保温性能较好的农户,宣传和运行补贴政策正向影响其意愿与行为,有利于其清洁取暖意愿与行为的统一及清洁取暖的持续采纳;4)农宅保温性能较差的农户,宣传政策不能提升农户意愿和行为,运行补贴政策会正向影响其意愿,因不足以补偿农户全部清洁采暖成本而难以影响农户行为,监督政策会造成意愿与行为的背离,因此在运行补贴和宣传政策的基础上还应对其农宅能效提升改造进行补贴,以促进其意愿与行为的一致及清洁取暖的持续采纳。

     

    Abstract: After the implementation of clean heating in the rural areas of the Fenwei Plain, it is difficult to use it sustainably. In this paper, we explore the countermeasures and suggestions for categorical policies by studying the structural equation and simulating the effect of guiding policies on rural households in different housing categories. The results show that: 1) The unity of intention and behavior is an important prerequisite for the sustainable adoption of clean heating. 2) The thermal insulation performance of rural houses has an important moderating effect on the influence of guiding policies on farmers' willingness and behavior. 3) For farmers with good thermal insulation performance, the publicity and operation of subsidy policies have a positive impact on their willingness and behavior, which is conducive to the unified development of their willingness and behavior for clean heating, and to achieve the continuous adoption of clean heating. 4) Farmers with poor thermal insulation performance of rural houses, the publicity policy can't improve the willingness and behavior of farmers, the operation subsidy policy is not enough to compensate all the clean heating costs of farmers, so it only positively affects their willingness. And the supervision policy will cause the deviation between willingness and behavior, therefore, on the basis of the operation subsidy and publicity policy, it should also subsidize the energy efficiency improvement and transformation of their rural houses, so as to promote the consistency of their willingness and behavior and the continuous adoption of clean heating.

     

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