Study on the Dynamic Development Mechanism between Rural Population and Construction Land under the Background of Return Migration: Taking Shuiling Township of Dongan County as an Example
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摘要: 文章基于乡村振兴和城乡融合发展的背景，探讨了农村人口回流和市民下乡所导致的乡村人口增加对乡村建设用地的动态影响问题。以湖南省永州市东安县水岭乡作为样本村镇，在收集整理其人口与用地等有关数据的基础上，运用灰色计量经济学理论和SD等理论构建村镇人口与建设用地系统动力学模型，通过探讨人口数量与建设用地之间的相互动态影响关系，阐明了村镇人口与建设用地的动态发展机制。研究结果表明：（1）在其他条件不变的情况下，人口数量随着迁入率的增加而增加；当迁入率在0.425%~0.770%之间取值时，村镇建设用地逐年减少；当迁入率大于0.770%时，村镇建设用地将会逐年增加。（2）村镇人口数量与建设用地需求量相互影响。一方面，村镇人口数量增加，建设用地需求量随之增加；与此同时，村镇建设用地越多迁出率越低，在共同影响下村镇人口数量将不会减少。（3）一定数量的乡村人口有利于我国村镇的经济社会与资源环境可持续发展。最后，基于研究结果提出村镇建设发展的对策建议。Abstract: Based on the background of rural revitalization and urban-rural integration, this paper discusses the problems about dynamic effect of rural population and construction land growth, which is caused by the return migration and citizens coming to the countryside. Based on the data of population and land use collected in Shuiling town, the study applies grey-econometrics theory and SD theory to build the system dynamics model of rural population and construction land, then the dynamic development mechanism of rural population and construction land is stated by discussing the mutual dynamic influence relationship between rural population and construction land. The results show that:(1) As the increase of migration rate, the population will increase when other conditions remain unchanged. While the construction land will decrease year by year when the migration rate of sample town varies between 0.425% and 0.77%. However, when the immigration rate is above 0.77%, the construction land will increase year by year. (2) The population of villages and towns interact with the demand for construction land. The increase of rural population will promote the demand for construction land increases accordingly, while construction land will not reduce the population of villages and towns by affecting the eviction rate. (3) A certain number of rural populations are in favor of the sustainable development of villages and towns in China. At last, based on the research results, this paper puts forward the policy measures which promote the development of rural construction.
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